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GENERAL NEWS Most growing regions have received some rain over the last month, and some have seen flooding. However the majority of growing areas require a lot more moisture to give confidence for the winter season. On the upside there has been some movement in most global commodity prices with products such as wheat, canola & cotton all on the rise. Unfortunately these increases have not kept pace with inputs such as fertiliser and diesel over the last two weeks. The Iran conflict has rapidly sent shocks around the world and overnight we were surprised with a 20c jump in the diesel price to $2.20/lt  terminal gate price (TGP). The large input cost increases and supply chain disruptions will pose challenges to the whole industry over the next 3-6 months.

WEATHER With what’s going on around the world, trying to predict the longterm forecasts for rainfall could be detrimental.

FERTILISER NEWS – 10th March 2026 Domestic fertiliser movements have moved quickly from the affects of the conflict in the middle east. Urea prices have shot up around 45% from $830’s two weeks ago, with international FOB’s over $700 per tonne being reported. Supply will remain tight with limited export availability from key producers and producers being largely committed.  Pricing for AP’s have risen slower than urea, with increases of around 10% for the fortnight. Domestic supply for MAP and starter fertiliser is near non-existent for un-committed v olumes. The supply of all mainstream fertiliser products will remain tight for sometime. Sulphur has been increasing in price from global demand, but the conflict will keep upward pressure on this commodity.

SPONSORSHIP Pacific Fertiliser sponsors sporting clubs in regional areas and we are behind numerous Rugby clubs again this winter. If you think you have good proposition for us, let us know.

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The Pacific Fertiliser & Regyp operations will shutdown for the Christmas/New Year break over the following dates:

Last Truck Loading –  4pm on Thursday 18th December 2024
Restart Truck Loading –  730am on Monday 5th January 2024

There will be limited coverage over the shutdown period, so if you require product during the above dates, please contact the office with your requirements as early as possible.

FERTILISER NEWS

Domestic fertiliser movements have started to gain some momentum over the last month, as harvesting pushes south.

The short term outlook for AP’s is soft with recent global trades signalling a softer market.

Urea prices remain soft internationally, however this is expected to pickup as Australia and Europe enter the market which could provide pricing support in early 2025.

Products bucking the current trend are Ammonium Sulphate and Single Super. SOA has risen on the back of global demand and SSP is tight due to demand and the increasing sulphur price.

Triple Super – TSP global prices are soft, however domestic supply is very tight.

Sulphur is now at historically high prices that are impacting phosphate and sulphur fertiliser costs significantly. Indonesia has now become a major buyer for use in precious metals mining operations.

In the potassium market, MOP remains stable, however global granular SOP supply remains tight.

The fertiliser market could firm in late January 2026, with a forecasted increase in global demand, coupled with China’s decision to extend the export ban phosphate until mid 2026.

Fertiliser Pricing 15th Dec 2025
Fertiliser prices over the last month have remained fairly soft.

The current eastern fertiliser market is trading in the following ranges:
Urea mid $700’s
MAP late $1100’s
DAP low – mid  $1200’s
Starter Z – mid $1300’s (very tight supply)
SOA & GranAM low-mid $400’s (limited supply)
SSP high $400’s (limited supply)
MOP low $700’s
SOP mid $1200’s

The Pacific Fertiliser & Regyp Team, would like to thank you for your continued support in 2025.

We would like to wish you and your families a safe and happy Christmas and we look forward to reconnecting in January and embarking on a successful 2026 together!

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Pacific Fertiliser News – Nov 2025

GENERAL NEWS

Harvest is well underway with equipment and trucks making the slow journey south. The North has seen some good numbers, but yields will reduce as the action heads south of Dubbo. Stripping will slow as more rain is predicted this weekend.

Commodity prices remain under pressure for pulses, grains and cotton and the hint of dry weather seems to have many growers keeping grain on farm to see what the start of next year brings.

Livestock prices are near all time highs which is great for producers, but optimism remains flat based on the uncertainty of the long range weather forecasts.

The Ashes kicks off today which should be great watching! Especially after the quick start.

WEATHER

As Murphy has it, those wishing to harvest crops or drop hay are getting storms, and those wanting moisture for summer crops or pasture are missing the rain events.

The long range forecasts seem about as good as the new BOM website. A lot of growers are not confident in the long-term outlook, which has taken some optimism out of the market.

FERTILISER NEWS – 21st November 2025

Domestic fertiliser movements have slowed over the last month, due to harvesting, and lower than predicted moisture for summer cropping.

Currently the short term outlook for AP’s is soft/flat. Factors that could affect the price is the removal of US tariffs for fertiliser imports and future tenders for countries like India and Brazil.

Urea prices remain firm internationally, however local demand remains subdued. China is suppling extra export tonnes, but this volume should be accounted for in India’s tender. With the final tender tonnes to be confirmed next week (range 1Mt – 2Mt).

FERTILISER PRICING – 21Nov2025
Fertiliser prices over the last month have remained fairly stable.

Urea – Domestically the price has been flat and contracting remains low.

Phosphates – Domestically the price has been flat and contracting remains low. SSP price is flat but supply is tight.

The current eastern fertiliser market is trading in the following ranges:
Urea mid-late $700’s
MAP late $1200’s
DAP low $1300’s
Starter Z – very tight supply – late $1300’s
SOA mid $400’s
SSP low $500’s (limited supply)
MOP low $700’s
SOP mid $1200’s

Feel free to contact us for firm pricing and options.

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Please see a brief market wrap for the 8th August below. The insight explains the main forces that affect global and domestic fertiliser pricing. Current Australian fertiliser prices for Urea and AP’s are at the top of the range trading around Urea $880 and MAP $1300 per tonne . High fertiliser prices coupled with low commodity prices for most crops, has slowed domestic buying.

NITROGEN
Nitrogen markets remain firm.
The Indian Tender has closed at 535 USD / MT CFR India for 2,000,000 MT with an additional 600,000 MT offered but not yet accepted. With China offering tonnes to India (2 – 300,000 MT), FOB prices for Granular Urea have jumped around 50 USD / MT. Low 400’s USD / MT FOB China for Prilled moves to mid 400’s USD / MT and Granular to high 400’s USD / MT.
Technical Urea prices have been directly impacted in China, up 50 USD / MT FOB. Russian, Uzbekistan and Egyptian origins are available for spot demands. The recent tender in Indonesia secured 5,000 MT to 2 traders and any other availability is tight.

To date, Brazil has purchased 70% more Ammonium Sulphate than the same time period last year. Coupled with excess stock of Urea at port, there is negative pressure on Urea CFR Brazil. Buyers are happy to wait on Ammonium Sulphate vessels arriving unsold, purchasing at discounted rates. Note Ammonium Sulphate is trading below Urea on a Nitrogen USD / MT basis already, with limited urgency being shown. European demand for Nitrogen is weak and we should see a decrease in prices of Ammonium Nitrate and Calcium Ammonium Nitrate over the next 2 – 3 weeks during the Southern Europe holiday season.

PHOSPHATES
Phosphates, currently firm, may ease into 4th quarter. Brazil and India have begun to resist inflated offers. As mentioned in the last few updates, the local farm gate affordability in Brazil reflects a 750 USD / MT CFR Brazil price. This resistance to paying at the inflated levels could lead to a softening Phosphates market. Demand for Chinese Tech grade MAP is weak. If the export ban goes ahead as stated, buyers must purchase from other origins where supply is tight (i.e. Russian TMAP is sold out until October), or prices are high, such as Tunisia. To hedge availability and pricing risk from origins not China, we recommend purchasing some tonnes now during the open window.

POTASSIUM
Potassium prices are flat. MOP dropped in China over the last weeks, and has since been stable (although port stocks are low). Globally there have not been any significant movements. MKP is flat, but is expected to soften. SOP manufacturers are suffering in China as the local demands are yet to begin and all export avenues have been closed by banning 9.5kg bag packing formats. The global supply of SOP is very tight. A manufacturer in Egypt sold up until October, and Uzbekistan product re-building its name in the market after questions of quality.

Potassium Nitrate is firm in Chile and stable in China, although if MOP prices begin to drop, expect an easing in FOB offers.
Magnesium Sulphate ex China remains firm, however we expect to see prices fall in the next 2-3 months. Autumn season begins in China and if the expected export ban for Phosphates is actioned then Sulphuric Acid prices should weaken, decreasing the raw materials price for Sulphates.

Calcium Nitrate remains weak in China. With India unavailable as an export market, this is likely the bottom of the market until China starts focusing internally and building up inventories for local application.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE
● Little changed for the AUD over the week despite a slightly firmer USD; AUD and NZD rose 0.7% and 0.6% respectively. AUD closed the week at 0.652
● USD slightly firmer, supported by a stronger US equity market and stable macro sentiment.
● Market focus is on the RBA meeting Tuesday (expected rate cut), plus key data releases from the US (CPI Tuesday, PPI Thursday, retail sales Friday) and China (Friday).

BULK SHIPPING INSIGHTS
Pacific & Asia
● Far East / SE Asia: Rates have increased slightly on tighter tonnage and stronger demand in Australia for salt and minerals. Owners are bullish, especially on handysizes. NOPAC and steel backhauls were quiet but expected to recover.
● Middle East / Indian Ocean: Sentiment is improving, particularly on Supramaxes due to stronger South African demand. Handysize remains quiet.

● North Atlantic / US Gulf: Sentiment is increasingly bullish. More cargoes are surfacing, especially for Q3. The region is drawing tonnage away from Europe.
● East Coast South America (ECSA): The market remains under pressure with declining enquiry and tonnage oversupply. Tariff uncertainty (especially U.S.-Brazil) is weighing on the outlook.
Market Sentiment & Fixing
● Handysize: Rates supported by weather disruptions in the North Pacific and limited tonnage. Some prompt fixtures reported. Asia remains more resilient than the Atlantic.
● Supramax: Market remains weak across most basins. A few fixtures seen in SE Asia, Australia, and the Continent. Owners remain hesitant to commit forward.
● Panamax: Rates continued to soften due to oversupply. Weak North Pacific and East Australia cargo flows pressured owners further.

CONTAINER SHIPPING INSIGHTS
Trans-Pacific Eastbound (TPEB)
● Demand & Capacity: Flat demand persists in August. Carriers are operating at 70–80% of normal capacity. Overcapacity continues despite reduced service offerings.
● Operational Disruption: China ports face 2–3 day delays due to Tropical Storm Co-may. Unannounced blank sailings and bunching are impacting vessel reliability.
● Rates: The August 1 GRI and PSS have been removed due to weak demand. Rates remain soft across all gateways. Far East Westbound (FEWB)
● Capacity: Capacity in August averages 304,000 TEUs/week but will decrease to 290,000 TEUs in the second half of the month. Evergreen and Maersk are injecting ~46,000 TEUs via extra loaders.
● Rates: Spot rates have slipped slightly due to weaker-than-expected demand. However, typhoon disruptions are helping carriers maintain high utilization. FEWB rates are expected to remain elevated due to peak season backlog.
Trans-Atlantic Westbound (TAWB)
● Congestion: Antwerp faces extreme congestion (9+ days dwell), while Hamburg, Bremerhaven, and South Med ports (Piraeus, Genoa, Valencia) remain under pressure.
● Equipment: Shortages persist in Austria, Slovakia, Hungary, Portugal, and Eastern Germany.
● Rates: Most PSSs are postponed in Northern and Western Europe. GRIs are emerging for East Med routes for early September.

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WEATHER

There is a big difference in soil moisture profiles from the north to the south on the East Coast. South Australia being the worst, with the effect of the drier conditions slowly creeping north towards Dubbo. Rain falls in central and south west NSW areas have been very patchy with most growers desperate for some decent falls.

In the west WA is the opposite with the South looking much better than the northern growing areas.

There has been a lot of country dry sown on the back of the modelled long-range rain forecasts. Most areas north of Dubbo are looking great, putting them in a promising position to capitalise on a good start to their winter cropping plans.

FERTILISER NEWS – 15th May 2025

There has been some big news in the domestic East Coast Fertiliser market in the last week.

Big news is:

• INCITEC Fertiliser has been spun out of Dyno Nobel to various buyers at a tenth of the 2008 valuation. Ridleys Stockfeeds bought the fertiliser distribution business in a $300M deal . Ridleys also secured a two year $75M option over the Geelong site where single super manufacturing ceases in September this year. The Brisbane Gibson Island site which once housed Urea manufacturing and distribution, was slowly being wound down and has now sold to a property developer for $194M.
• As part of the divestment sale, Macquarie Group’s Commodities business purchased a twenty year offtake agreement for nearly 2MT p.a. of Urea, from Perdaman Chemicals and Fertilisers for $145M. That is once the new WA Urea plant comes online. The future for the Phosphate Hill mining and fertiliser manufacturing plant, south of Mt Isa is still unclear with a decision to be made by Sept25. It what is not a good sign for manufacturing in Australia, it could lead to all three of domestic Incitec’s fertiliser manufacturing plants being closed. Read more.
• WENGFU Australia Fertiliser’s Distribution business which accounts for close to 700,000tpa of fertiliser, has been bought by Fertiglobe, an Abu Dhabi-based fertiliser producer and distributor. Fertiglobe is the world’s largest seaborne exporter of Urea and Ammonia combined, and the largest nitrogen fertiliser producer. The experience and size of the Fertiglobe business is expected to increase the offering and volumes through the existing Wengfu Australian distribution sites.

FERTILISER PRICING – 15th May 2025
Fertiliser prices over the last few weeks remain fairly stable.

The trump effect of winding back tariffs and a perceived stable government is helping the Aussie dollar claw back some ground against the USD.

Urea – the price remains flat as the market gets wiser to Indian’s tender games. Domestically the price has been fairly flat as contracting remains low.

Phosphates – AP’s have been firming throughout 2025. We are still in a situation where domestic MAP prices are below global replacement costs and this gap is narrowing with the rising prices.

The current eastern fertiliser market is trading in the following ranges:
Urea Mid-high $700’s (not much getting contracted at the moment)
MAP/DAP low $1100’s
Starter Z – very tight supply – late $1100’s (some southern port swaps are happening due to low rain fall)
SOA low-mid $400’s
SSP low $400’s (not much being contracted)
MOP has been steadily increasing, now late $600’s
SOP mid-late $1200’s – very tight supply

Feel free to contact us for firm pricing and options.

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A brief history of IPF

The fertiliser distribution business, Incitec Pivot Fertilisers (IPF) was sold to Ridleys in May 2025.

Incitec Pivot Limited (IPL) recently changed its name to Dyno Nobel in April 2025. Dyno Nobel Limited was acquired by IPL back in 2008. The recent name change to Dyno Nobel Limited was a strategic move to concentrate on the explosives business in readiness to offload the fertiliser business.

Pivot Limited and Incitec Fertilisers merged in 2003 to create IPL and three years later the company’s fertiliser production capacity more than doubled with the purchase of Southern Cross Fertiliser.

IPF boasts a long, proud history within the fertiliser industry. Incitec Pivot’s first direct decendant company, Australian Co-operative Fertilizers commenced in Toowoomba, Queensland in 1915. Australian Fertilizers Ltd formed in 1920 in NSW and took over the SSP operations of the Elliot brothers (1862). Meanwhile, its Victorian counterpart Pivot Limited was formed in 1918, creating The Phosphate Co-operative Company of Australia Limited in 1919.

The Phosphate Hill mining and ammonia site also has a long history as it awaits the next chapter in a potential sale of closure in 2025.

The ammonia processing plant was built by Western Mining Corporation (WMC) in 1999. In June 2005, BHP Billiton acquired WMC. The $9.2 billion acquisition of WMC Resources resulted in the world’s largest miner acquiring its Queensland Fertiliser Operations (QFO) and a one-third stake in Hi-Fert. QFO sold about 40 per cent of its production to Incitec Pivot.

The Phosphate Hill mine and associated phosphate fertiliser production business in South of Mt Isa in Queensland, which became known as Southern Cross Fertilisers (following the BHP Billiton takeover); and Hi Fert, a blending and distribution network supporting Australia’s eastern states. In Dec 2005 the ELF Australia joint venture announced the purchase of the 33.3% BHP Billiton share of Hi Fert Pty Ltd. HiFert’s parent company, ELF Australia, is a 50:50 joint venture between Elders and Landmark Rural Holdings.

This acquisition gave ELF 100% ownership of Hi Fert. ELF Australia is a 50/50 joint venture between Landmark (a wholly owned subsidiary of AWB Limited) and Elders (a wholly owned subsidiary of Futuris Corporation). In 2009 Elders and AWB put the Hi-Fert business up for sale with large write downs.

BHP Billiton also sold Southern Cross Fertilisers to Incitec Pivot in May 2006.

In Aug 2011 Ameropa Holding AG (through its subsidiaries Impact Fertilisers Pty Ltd and Impact Fertilisers Australia Pty Ltd) moved to acquire the assets of Hi-Fert Pty Ltd, a deal that would ensure Impact’s fertiliser distribution presence in the local market. It had to fight off WengFu who were looking to enter the market, at a time when others had failed in the Fertiliser distribution business like South Fert, AB Grin and Direct Fert.

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WEATHER A lot of areas outside SE QLD are getting very dry, especially in the Southern states. The majority of growers are hoping the impending weather event later this week will eventuate and travel South. We also hope the flooding in the North West doesn’t cause too much damage. Most eastern cropping areas should receive some rain over the next week, with the forecasts changing daily.  Whilst this could affect cotton harvest and yields for some, it will set up many growers for winter sowing and if we are lucky it may also start to fill up water storages for future seasons. Due to the forecasted weather, there could be possible delays for product supply and freight movements in and out of Brisbane again. Please check with us before sending trucks into Brisbane after this Wednesday and we anticipate any delays will be short term.

FERTILISER PRICE UPDATE – 25th March 2025 Fertiliser prices over the last few weeks are hard to follow with urea prices following the global market but domestic MAP prices remaining fairly stable. Urea – the price remains soft as the market awaits the next Indian tender. Domestically the price has been trending down, Phosphates – AP’s have been firming throughout 2025. We now see a situation where domestic MAP prices are well below global replacement costs and local importers are looking to close this gap with prices slowly increasing. For those that haven’t locked in all of your MAP and starter requirements for the Winter season we would recommend committing and locking in your volumes, as this weather event could ensure that last of the current domestic stock is fully contracted. Global AP prices continue to firm on Chinese export restrictions, reduced global manufacturing, soft aussie dollar, and increased global demand for AP’s. The current eastern fertiliser market is trading in the following ranges: Urea high $700’s MAP/DAP high $1000’s Starter Z – (compound 10-22-02 + Zn 1%) mid-late $1100’s SOA low-mid $400’s SSP low $400’s MOP has been steadily increasing, now late $600’s Feel free to contact us for firm pricing and options.

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